Even in a Small Economy, Texas Poised to Get Bigger

Even in a Small Economy, Texas Poised to Get Bigger

Terry Muñoz, Vice President, Nielsen Claritas & Mike Mancini, Vice President, Data Product Management, Nielsen Claritas

Despite what is expected to be the slowest decade for population growth in the last 50 years, retail investors must continue to search diligently for markets whose continued growth offers the best chance for long-term success. Counter to popular belief on how the current economic conditions affect your future outlook, the good news is the largest markets in Texas are expected to experience healthy population growth over the next five years.

Everyone knows temperatures in Texas get hot, but based on recently published five-year population projections from Nielsen Claritas; you might be surprised to learn the biggest markets in Texas are projected to experience sizzling population growth–double digit growth. Which markets? Surprisingly, the biggest Texas cities–markets with populations exceeding one million people, will grow the fastest. Austin leads the way at 14.25%, Houston will grow another 11.12% and Dallas is expected to experience healthy growth of 10.97%. San Antonio isn’t far behind at 9.76%. This is particularly good news considering these markets are not experiencing the housing and foreclosure chaos gripping California, Florida and Arizona.

Since projected growth for the U.S. over the next five years is expected to be only slightly above 5%, it is encouraging to find solid growth opportunities in Texas. Maybe there is some truth to the saying “Everything is Always Bigger in Texas”. This claim is fueled by the fact that four of the largest Texas CBSA (Core Based Statistical Area) markets are projected to grow more than 10% or 2X times faster than the projected U.S. growth rate.

Given the strong relationship between market size and projected growth, savvy retail investors should take a serious look at Texas. The combination of sheer market size and future growth provide the best hedge against future risk.

Read more about how to evaluate population growth in the U.S. in the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) Research Review.