Recessionary Sentiment Was Shared By Nearly All Brazilian Consumers in Q3

Recessionary Sentiment Was Shared By Nearly All Brazilian Consumers in Q3

While global consumer confidence rose three points to an index score of 99 in the third quarter, Latin American markets saw confidence declines in five of seven countries measured. Chile (79) reported the steepest drop of five index points from the second quarter, followed by Argentina (78) and Colombia (90) with declines of three points each and Venezuela (60) with a decline of two points. Confidence in the region’s largest economy, Brazil, declined two points to a score of 79, the fourth consecutive quarter of declining sentiment and the lowest score on record for the country since the inception of the survey in 2005. Conversely, confidence increased two points in Mexico (86) and was flat in Peru (95).

In Brazil, sentiment for two consumer confidence indicators hit new lows, as job prospect sentiment declined five percentage points to 18%, and personal finance sentiment decreased two percentage points to 54%. Immediate spending intentions increased six percentage points to 38%. Nearly all Brazilian respondents believe they are in recession, as the sentiment increased two percentage points to 92% from the second quarter.

“The challenging economic scenario in Brazil continues to deteriorate, as the slowdown in GDP, increasing inflation, steep currency devaluation and higher unemployment rate take a toll,” said Luis Arjona, country manager, Nielsen Brazil. “To cope with the situation, households are modifying consumption habits by seeking store formats with competitive prices, choosing heavily promoted items and building up stock at home by buying bulk or multi-pack products. Purchases of consumer products are now increasingly planned, as consumers are actively making rational choices to buy products with an attractive cost-benefit tradeoff and cutting superfluous items.”

Regionally, the 12-month outlook for good/excellent job prospects declined two percentage points to 24%, and personal finances sentiment fell two percentage points to 53%. Immediate spending intentions increased one percentage point to 33%. Recessionary sentiment grew in the region, rising from 81% in the second quarter to 84% in the third quarter—the highest of all the regions.

Other findings from the recent report include:

  • Morocco was added to the Global Survey this quarter, and the country’s index is reflected in the Middle East/Africa regional average.
  • Global immediate spending intentions have risen 13 percentage points since 2008 to a high of 43% in the third quarter of 2015.
  • Taiwan showed the biggest quarterly decline of 12 points from the second quarter, while South Korea reported the lowest score of 49 in the third-quarter.

For more detail and insight, download Nielsen’s Q3 2015 Global Consumer Confidence Report.

For a historical look at global consumer confidence by region, country and time period, explore the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Trend Tracker.

About the Nielsen Global Survey

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions was conducted Aug. 10-Sept. 4, 2015, and polled more than 30,000 online consumers in 61 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North America. The sample includes Internet users who agreed to participate in this survey and has quotas based on age and sex for each country. It is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers by country. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. However, a probability sample of equivalent size would have a margin of error of ±0.6% at the global level. This Nielsen survey is based only on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60% Internet penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed methodology survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The sub-Saharan African countries in this study are compiled from a separate mobile methodology survey among 1,600 respondents in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. The Nielsen Global Survey, which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established in 2005.